加拿大楼市强弩之末 加元要惨跌至2017年

蒙大教授

<h1 id="h1title" class="ep-h1" style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 31px; letter-spacing: -1px; color: rgb(37, 37, 37); font-family: 宋体, sans-serif;">加拿大楼市强弩之末 加元要惨跌至2017年</h1><div><br></div><div><img class="primeur" data-placeholder="http://www.rcinet.ca/zh/wp-content/themes/responsive-rci/lib/images/placeholder-large.jpg" src="http://img.src.ca/2016/11/24/635x357/161124_4c1ol_rci-fangjy1_sn635.jpg" alt="在2017年加元仍然会是“跌跌不休”" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; vertical-align: middle; height: auto; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(237, 237, 237);"><p class="legende" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 625px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">在2017年加元仍然会是“跌跌不休”<br><em class="credit" style="border: 0px; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">图片来源: Jonathan Hayward/Canadian Press</em></p><h1 class="post-title" style="border: 0px; font-weight: normal; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 28px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-top: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(237, 237, 237);">加元在2017年可能要跌到0.7美元</h1><div class="post-meta" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 18px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 10px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: relative; width: 360px; background-color: rgb(237, 237, 237);"><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">作者&nbsp;<span class="vcard author" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="url fn n" href="http://www.rcinet.ca/zh/author/fanghe/" title="查看 方华 的所有文章" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(204, 0, 0); text-decoration: none;">方华</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br></span></p></div><div class="post-entry" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 25px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(237, 237, 237);"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">加拿大前往美国购物或者旅游的民众要郁闷了，因为专家们相信加元在今后一年的时间里不但会继续对美元贬值，而且加元对美元的汇率会下跌到<span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">1</span>加元换<span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">0.70</span>美元的水平。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">加拿大广播公司报道说，根据加拿大和美国金融机构最近发布的几个加元对美元的汇率研究报告，加元汇率的运行趋势是继续下行，加元有较大的可能在<span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">2017</span>年降到<span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">0.7</span>美元的低位水平。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">主要原因有三个</span></p><div class="insert-post-ads" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span></div><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">首先是美国经济在增速发展，而加拿大经济继续疲软；第二是美联储会很快开始加息，而加拿大央行则会继续较长时间的维持目前的低利率；第三是世界石油市场价格会继续在目前的低位徘徊，而加拿大货币加元素有石油货币之称。</p><figure itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="http://img.src.ca/2016/11/24/635x357/161124_jo3de_rci-fangjy_sn635.jpg" itemprop="associatedMedia" class="associatedMedia image mceNonEditable align-center" data-align="center" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin: 20px auto; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative; max-width: 635px; width: 635px;"><img src="http://img.src.ca/2016/11/24/635x357/161124_jo3de_rci-fangjy_sn635.jpg" alt="特朗普减税和基础设施巨额投资会刺激美国经济" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: middle; height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: table-cell;"><div class="insert-post-ads" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 12px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; padding: 6.34375px 12.6875px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); width: 611px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span itemprop="description" class="description" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">特朗普减税和基础设施巨额投资会刺激美国经济</span>&nbsp;©&nbsp;<span itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" itemprop="creator" class="creator" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">Evan Vucci/Associated Press</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">美国当选总统特朗普已经表示当政后会采取减税和巨额投资于基础设施建设这双管齐下刺激经济的政策。专家们的一致看法是特朗普这样的经济政策会有效的刺激美国经济增长、并保持美元的强势地位。</p><div class="insert-post-ads" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span></div><a class="medianet button" href="http://www.rcinet.ca/zh/2016/11/24/66052/#" title="加元在2017年可能要跌到0.7美元" data-media-id="7637898" data-media-image="http://img.src.ca/2016/11/24/635x357/161124_4c1ol_rci-fangjy1_sn635.jpg" data-media-locale="zh" data-media-appcode="medianet" style="border: none; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 24px; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 20px; margin-bottom: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px; padding-left: 94px; vertical-align: middle; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; box-shadow: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.298039) 0px 1px 0px inset; border-radius: 2px; cursor: pointer; display: block; text-shadow: none; white-space: nowrap; clear: both; filter: none; width: auto; background: url(&quot;../images/btn_ecoutez.png&quot;) 0% 0% no-repeat;">收听</a><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">房地产市场强弩之末</span></p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">另一个会让加拿大经济减速的问题是加拿大几个城市过热的房地产市场让政府不得不采取干预措施。比如不列颠哥伦比亚省政府推出的外国人购房特别税、温哥华市政府推出的空置房特别税、联邦政府推出的严格房贷发放标准和提高购房首付的措施， 等等。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">现在已经有迹象显示，加拿大三级政府推出的这些给房地产市场降温的措施已经开始发挥作用。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">有人欢喜有人愁</span></p><div class="insert-post-ads" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span></div><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">不过，加拿大也有不少人喜欢见到加元对美元汇率的继续走低。首先加拿大的出口企业会很高兴，因为出口商品的价格是以美元计价的，他们出口的商品在价格上会变得更有竞争力；其次是联邦和省政府会高兴见到出口行业带动加拿大的经济发展和就业增加；第三是在出口企业工作的加拿大人和在旅游业工作的加拿大人也会高兴，因为他们的工作时数会增加、收入也会增加。</p><div class="insert-post-ads" style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span></div><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1.6em; vertical-align: baseline;">RCI with CBC</p><span style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 0px; line-height: 0px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(237, 237, 237); float: right;">加拿大国际广播及CBC/Radio-Canada版权所有 抄袭举报 网站：www.rcinet.ca 微信ID:radio-canada</span><div align="center" style="border: 0px; 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