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标题: 真敢对朝鲜动武？我们分析了美国17年的战争数据后发现…… [打印本页]

作者: 还珠格格 时间: 2017-4-14 11:39
标题: 真敢对朝鲜动武？我们分析了美国17年的战争数据后发现……
<h2 class="rich_media_title" id="activity-name" style="margin-bottom: 14px; padding-bottom: 10px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 24px; line-height: 1.4; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(231, 231, 235); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; widows: 1; zoom: 1;">锋评 | 真敢对朝鲜动武？我们分析了美国17年的战争数据后发现……</h2><div class="rich_media_meta_list" style="margin-bottom: 18px; line-height: 20px; font-size: 0px; position: relative; z-index: 1; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; widows: 1; zoom: 1;"><span id="copyright_logo" class="rich_media_meta meta_original_tag" style="margin-right: 8px; margin-bottom: 10px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; font-size: 14px; border: 0px solid rgb(158, 158, 158); color: rgb(140, 140, 140); border-radius: 20% 50%; line-height: 100px; max-width: none; width: 49px; height: 20px; overflow: hidden; background: url("https://res.wx.qq.com/mmbizwap/z ... 5ab3f.png") 0px 0px no-repeat transparent;">原</span> </div><div class="rich_media_content " id="js_content" style="overflow: hidden; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); position: relative; min-height: 350px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; widows: 1;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 6px; padding-left: 6px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(249, 110, 87); transform: rotate(0deg);"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;">导读</strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></span></p></section><section style="margin-top: -7px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: -6px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; width: 0px; border-left: 10px solid rgb(249, 110, 87); border-top: 6px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);"></section><section style="margin-right: -6px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; width: 0px; border-right: 10px solid rgb(249, 110, 87); border-top: 6px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);"></section><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="margin-top: -9px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 52px;"><section style="margin-left: -4px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; width: 0px; border-left: 3px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); border-top: 3px solid transparent !important; border-bottom: 3px solid transparent !important;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 546px; transform: rotate(0deg);"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 50px; height: 4px; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"></section></section><section class="" style="margin-top: -4px; padding: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; font-size: 15px;">4月8日，在中国南海附近游弋的美国“卡尔-文森号”核动力航母战斗群突然调头北上，前往朝鲜半岛附近水域。本周美朝双方互相强硬表态，半岛局势骤然紧张。外界猜想美国这一次很可能要对朝鲜动武，事实真的如此吗？全球锋报认为本轮“4月危机”不过是历次危机的重演，不会上演真正的战争。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: center; font-size: 17px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><iframe class="video_iframe" data-vidtype="1" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="501" width="668" data-src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/preview.html?vid=f002342zskx&width=500&height=375&auto=0" scrolling="no" src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/player.html?vid=f002342zskx&width=668&height=501&auto=0&encryptVer=6.0&platform=61001&cKey=eWa6Dh2h9F88QwW5MDvYmgO+TuaMGTffFJCnYf4qGhuVjY7j7Pu2W4autAdmvbdi" style="max-width: 100%; display: block; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: 668px !important; height: 501px !important;"></iframe></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">（朝鲜核弹威力有多大？</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">打不到美国，周边近20亿人更受威胁）</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">冷战后，美军曾发动多次规模较大战争与袭击。<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1991年的海湾战争、1993年武装干涉索马里、1994年入侵海地、1999年悍然空袭南联盟、2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争。</strong></span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">全球锋报通过对历次冲突的数据挖掘和对比，发现美国目前并不具有全面攻朝的能力，美国对朝动武可能性较小！</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyOLL7Dic8J0MsJ7ZmGo6Zico5nGuiaO6nFS5ia6T5fBibicwoOia5I1wNumzTdg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" width="100%" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="0.6546666666666666" data-w="750" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyOLL7Dic8J0MsJ7ZmGo6Zico5nGuiaO6nFS5ia6T5fBibicwoOia5I1wNumzTdg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; vertical-align: top; display: block; height: auto !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></p><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-right-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section><section style="margin-top: -8px; margin-bottom: -8px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">理由一：美国经济疲软不会轻言战争</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-right: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-left-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section></section></section></section><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2008年金融危机以来，美国经济艰难复苏。由于经济实力的下降，从奥巴马政府开始，美国进入全面收缩战略期。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">特朗普政府以“美国优先”原则来处理内政外交，要求在全球“卸担子”，减少美国在海外开支，以应对国内复杂多变的局势。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyO0hsOacJKheF53Tb9RuKM7UojibGX313iafwyVcrHrf6W68szyGhSaM0A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" width="100%" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="0.2827346465816918" data-w="863" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyO0hsOacJKheF53Tb9RuKM7UojibGX313iafwyVcrHrf6W68szyGhSaM0A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; vertical-align: top; display: block; height: auto !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">通过对冷战后美国历次发动战争之前一年的经济状况进行对比，由表中数据可知，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美国当前经济环境不佳，两种指标均低于历史其他时期，不能为对朝动武提供可靠的经济保障。</strong></span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">虽然美国依然保持着超级大国地位，经济总量也始终维持世界第一，但是与冷战刚结束相比，美国当前的经济实力已经大不如前。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2016年末，美国政府债务总规模升破19.97万亿美元，特朗普政府背负巨额债务，随时面临停摆的危机。</strong>面对如此严峻的经济形势，特朗普的新政府把恢复国内经济和保障就业作为头等大事，不会轻易增加负担。因此，美国不会轻言战争。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><iframe class="video_iframe" data-vidtype="1" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="501" width="668" data-src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/preview.html?vid=v0023l99vk9&width=500&height=375&auto=0" scrolling="no" src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/player.html?vid=v0023l99vk9&width=668&height=501&auto=0&encryptVer=6.0&platform=61001&cKey=eWa6Dh2h9F88QwW5MDvYmgO+TuaMGTffFJCnYf4qGhuVjY7j7Pu2W4autAdmvbdi" style="max-width: 100%; display: block; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: 668px !important; height: 501px !important;"></iframe><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">（揭秘全球800处美军基地 1年开销1000亿美元）</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-right-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section><section style="margin-top: -8px; margin-bottom: -8px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">理由二：军费开支巨大，军力受牵制</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-right: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-left-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section></section></section></section></section><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">多年来，美国军费开支始终保持全球第一，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">军费总额超过排名其后的前10个国家军费总和。</strong></span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">举例来说，受阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争的影响，美国军费开支2002—2010年始终保持高速增长态势，年均增幅超过9%，2003年更是达到创纪录的13.8%。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">但是，2008年次贷危机以及随之而来的国际金融危机打断了这一进程，美国军费开支从2011年开始回落，2015年降至不足6000亿，而2016年增长至6220亿美元。2017年美国实际国防预算为5837亿美元，军费开销依然庞大。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">虽然美国维持着世界最强大的军事力量，但是由于阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争的消耗，牵制着美国的军力。</strong>尤其是当前，面临着“伊斯兰国”ISIS和叙利亚内战的挑战，在与俄罗斯的对抗中牵扯了美国大量的精力。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">虽然派“卡尔-文森号”航母战斗群前往朝鲜半岛，但是其更多是一种威慑，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">如果真正发动一场局部战争，美国恐怕也有心无力。因此，美国军力无法满足其多面作战，对朝动武微乎其微。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><iframe class="video_iframe" data-vidtype="1" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="501" width="668" data-src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/preview.html?vid=e0023xkmw99&width=500&height=375&auto=0" scrolling="no" src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/player.html?vid=e0023xkmw99&width=668&height=501&auto=0&encryptVer=6.0&platform=61001&cKey=eWa6Dh2h9F88QwW5MDvYmgO+TuaMGTffFJCnYf4qGhuVjY7j7Pu2W4autAdmvbdi" style="max-width: 100%; display: block; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: 668px !important; height: 501px !important;"></iframe><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">（美国陆海空核爆恐怖画面犹如世界末日）</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-right-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section><section style="margin-top: -8px; margin-bottom: -8px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">理由三：历史上美国从未对有核国家动武</strong></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-right: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-left-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section></section></section></section><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2006年以来，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">朝鲜已经5次核试验，其在一定程度上已经是一个“拥核国家”。</strong></span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">据韩联社4月13日报道，朝鲜可能即将进行第6次核试验。不论消息确实与否，朝鲜的拥核决心显而易见。自金日成以来，成为有核国家一直是朝鲜的国家战略，尤其是金正恩上台后，连续进行3次核试验，更是显示了朝鲜第三代领导人对核武器追求的迫切。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">冷战之后，美国发动的几次战争对象都是无核国家</strong>，不论是伊拉克、索马里、海地、南联盟还是阿富汗，都不具备核打击能力。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美国历史上从未对有核国家或准核国家开战，这是核武器造成的“恐怖平衡”的结果。目前，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">虽然朝鲜并没有直接威胁美国本土的核打击能力，但是其对东亚地区的破坏力巨大</strong>，使美国必须谨慎考虑对朝动武的选项。因此，美国目前对朝鲜动武的可能性较低。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></p><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-right-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section><section style="margin-top: -8px; margin-bottom: -8px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">理由四：朝鲜半岛的特殊性中俄同意吗？</strong></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-right: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-left-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section></section></section></section><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">与其他地区相比，朝鲜半岛拥有着极为复杂的地缘政治，美国、中国、俄罗斯和日本等大国都牵涉其中。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美国对朝鲜动武必须考虑中国和俄罗斯的态度，而中俄两国都不允许朝鲜半岛生乱</strong>，因此不会轻易同意美国的战争选项。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">朝鲜半岛的分裂是冷战的产物，一直持续至今。韩国作为“人质”被朝鲜利用，其首都首尔靠近边境线，即使不使用核武器，朝鲜也可以对首尔进行毁灭性的打击。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美韩对朝作战计划几经变更，当前制定了“斩首行动”和先发制人的“5015”计划。即便如此，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美韩也很难在朝鲜没有反应之前就完全控制朝鲜军队的有生力量</strong>，该计划能否奏效尚未可知。因此，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">美国对朝动武必须考虑韩国民众的安全</strong>，这也是朝鲜得以生存的一个“利器”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTI4OTgwMg==&mid=2649962921&idx=1&sn=aa6e5d7c0ee8ba99ca144c47bef1f154&chksm=f194548cc6e3dd9a9444db8eb7f9740799347780052d57136d39c574fdf1d647e36d8ef4d23e&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data_ue_src="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTI4OTgwMg==&mid=2649962921&idx=1&sn=aa6e5d7c0ee8ba99ca144c47bef1f154&chksm=f194548cc6e3dd9a9444db8eb7f9740799347780052d57136d39c574fdf1d647e36d8ef4d23e&scene=21#wechat_redirect" style="color: rgb(67, 149, 245); text-decoration-line: none; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyOdJx2ib1lJxvy1HmRNK9QiaicgicaZcanL0rYxPgmTicaH9ecpTlpVYOySqQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.5619335347432024" data-w="662" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/Y2auD9j2SoWXCBG8icGxXxR4SW7BouFyOdJx2ib1lJxvy1HmRNK9QiaicgicaZcanL0rYxPgmTicaH9ecpTlpVYOySqQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;"></a></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">（请点击图片跳转至原文观看）</span></em></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></em></p><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle;"><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-right-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"></section><section style="margin-top: -8px; margin-bottom: -8px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 15px;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important;">结论：“4月危机”是历次危机的重演</strong></strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-right: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-top-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(182, 39, 70); border-left-color: rgb(182, 39, 70); width: 12px; height: 12px;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section></section></section></section><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">综上所述，美国空袭叙利亚让外界联想到美国对朝动武的可能性，尤其是美国白宫、国务院和五角大楼的强硬表态，更使人感觉战争的脚步越来越近。</span></p><p class="" style="margin: 17px auto; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); text-align: justify; font-size: 17px; line-height: 26px; font-family: Helvetica, 黑体; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">然而，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">从历史数据和现实情况来看，美国并没有发动又一次朝鲜战争，乃至“斩首行动”的能力。</strong>美国和朝鲜正在玩着“撞车游戏”，双方在互相讹诈，希望自己可以获得更多的利益，而不是一定要“车毁人亡”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">因此，本轮“4月危机”不过是历次危机的重演，不会上演真正的战争冲突。</span></p></div><p></p>

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